Unleashing Demons Read online

  Those words were prophetic. The demons were unleashed and he and his team faced betrayal, lies and political bloodletting on an epic scale.

  All of this was filtered through the prism of an unbalanced media. The Remain campaign experienced the impact of a number of influential newspapers fighting for Leave with ruthless determination. Others, in favour of Remain, tended to be left-leaning and therefore lukewarm about the prospect of coming to the aid of a Conservative prime minister. Added to this was the frustration of the heavily regulated broadcast media, legally bound to provide balance, even when the other side were churning out stories that were at best deeply misleading and at worst, lies.

  But it would be too easy to say that these were the only reasons Remain lost. We certainly made mistakes – and I was part of the team responsible.

  All of the issues I have outlined above meant that we were swimming against the tide. But other factors meant we were doing it with one arm tied behind our back.

  Our campaign was based on the simple proposition that electorates don’t vote against their own pockets. That view is summed up best in the closest thing to an iron law in politics, James Carville’s realisation when running the first Clinton presidential campaign, ‘It’s the economy, stupid!’ The view that the economy would trump immigration as the primary concern of voters was backed up by plenty of solid polling evidence, as well as the pattern of how electorates had behaved going back over a century. It was wrong – and devastatingly so when we did not have enough of an answer on freedom of movement.

  More to the point, we assumed that an army of nearly three million people who had become so disengaged and disillusioned that they did not vote in the 2015 general election – and probably for some time before that – would not vote. When polled, that group said they did not trust the opinions of politicians, businesses, economists or experts, making them almost unreachable to a campaign arguing for the status quo. That group was susceptible to claims of an establishment conspiracy against them, with politicians ignoring or betraying them for too long, something Leave understood and exploited. They voted in numbers great enough to ensure the country voted ‘Out’. We realised too late – and didn’t do enough to combat it.

  It’s a cliché to say that history is written by the winners. This book tells the story of those who lost and how – as the Remain campaign pollster, Andrew Cooper, put it – we struggled to communicate a complex truth in the face of simple lies.

  JANUARY

  Chapter 1

  We Are All Just Prisoners Here

  IT IS THE first day of 2016 and George Osborne is sounding the alarm bell.

  He sends an email revealing he’s anxious that the Leave campaign has managed to ‘out-gun’ the Remain campaign in the newspapers. He thinks they are doing a great job ‘keeping the papers fed and creating a sense of momentum,’ going on to ask, ‘Where is the Remain campaign’s equivalent? I literally cannot remember a single thing they have done since the not very successful launch months ago.’ He mocks the fact that their big new-year initiative is a single newsletter and concludes, ‘I’m sorry to be so blunt – but we’ve put up with this for too long and nothing is happening, and we have got to sort it out.’

  He wants No. 10 either to take over the Remain campaign with people he knows and trusts – or for us to consider setting up something entirely different.

  Others agree the campaign is ‘listless and drifting’.

  But Stephen Gilbert, the Conservative party’s long-serving campaign director, who has had more contact with them than any of us, believes this is grossly unfair and they are doing what is necessary to set up an effective campaign.

  There’s no point saying it, but I’m reminded of the line in the song ‘Hotel California’, by the Eagles: ‘We are all just prisoners here, of our own device.’ As the Government, we are in the middle of a renegotiation with the European Union aimed at giving the UK a ‘special relationship’ within it. Until that deal is done, how can the Government campaign effectively? David Cameron has said explicitly, ‘I rule nothing out,’ on being asked what happens if the outcome of his renegotiation is not satisfactory. That means he could recommend leaving.

  So, instead of relaxing on the first day of the year, inboxes fill with plans of action. It’s suggested Stephen be seconded to the Remain campaign; there should be a beefed-up grid of EU stories, rolled out daily; Cabinet members are to be encouraged to speak up for the renegotiation, starting with a speech by Liz Truss, the Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

  No. 10’s Director of Strategy, Ameet Gill, points out we are in danger of tying ourselves in knots – creating stories that suggest the renegotiation is crucial, while also hinting we are probably stronger in Europe regardless. He and I agree that the most effective way we can use the next six weeks is to demonstrate how hard we are fighting for Britain; and then sell the deal if and when we get it.

  Everyone keeps saying this will be the biggest decision for the country since the Second World War, so I have decided to keep a diary. At the end of a long day, I note, ‘If I have to call it – we will win this referendum, but it’ll be bloody and dark, and the victory could well be Pyrrhic.’ We are beginning the year looking forward to civil war in the Conservative party – the future desperately uncertain.

  It is dark and almost unnervingly warm as I enter Downing Street after the Christmas break. The policeman who opens the gate greets me by saying, ‘Happy new year! It’s like you’ve never been away!’

  I haven’t, I think, as I smile and return the greeting.

  I have always known this would be the year of Europe, but what I wasn’t expecting was that there’d be no hiding place from the off. After a brief 8.30 meeting followed by a small group discussion on a Daesh/ISIL video involving a man trying to set himself up as the new ‘Jihadi John’ next to a five-year-old child – both, shockingly, with British accents – the PM has a quick private meeting with Chris Grayling, the Leader of the House of Commons.

  There’s been a bit in the papers suggesting he and the Northern Ireland Minister Theresa Villiers might announce they are going to campaign to leave the EU before the end of the renegotiation. That would mean a breach of collective responsibility, the convention that members of the Cabinet must publicly support all governmental decisions made in Cabinet, even if they do not privately agree with them. It raises the question of whether they should be fired for doing so.

  The PM sees him one on one. After fifteen minutes Chris emerges pale and with a tall man’s stoop, asking to have a discussion with the Chief of Staff at No. 10, Ed Llewellyn. Kate Fall, who is Deputy Chief of Staff – and who I have come to see as one of the shrewdest and most emotionally intelligent people in politics – goes in to see the PM with me. He says it was as we thought: Chris does want to campaign for out, but ideally while remaining in the Cabinet.

  The PM is already clear in his mind – that can’t happen. It would look as if he was being pushed around. He says he laid it on thick, telling him it would spread disunity. His mind is already turning to the prospect of a reshuffle, considering people who could replace Chris Grayling.

  One argument that was tried on him was, ‘What is the point of doing it now? The renegotiation is supposed to be sorted in six or seven weeks.’

  The PM believes Chris’s logic is that the Leave campaign is in a total mess and needs rescuing. It’s being run by Dominic Cummings, whom the Prime Minister once referred to as a ‘career psychopath’. He had become convinced that Cummings had been briefing against the Government he supposedly represented as a special adviser at the Department for Education. My predecessor, Andy Coulson, had refused to allow Michael Gove to have Cummings as a special adviser, believing him to be trouble. Gove had used the period between him going and me arriving to plead Cummings’ case and he had been re-employed.

  Briefings against No. 10 became frequent. Suspecting Cummings, the PM decided to haul him and Gove in to clear the air. Offered
the opportunity to explain whether he had a problem or not, Cummings was unprepared to say to the PM’s face what many suspected he was saying privately. Incredibly, his tone was meek and mild – actually praising the Prime Minister for his leadership.

  Eventually Cummings left Government – managing to keep himself in the Westminster limelight occasionally with an eccentric blog that led some to accuse him of flirting with eugenics, something he denies. His Twitter feed was named ‘The Odyssean Project’ and claimed to be based on the thinking of the physicist Gell-Mann, who said we need an ‘Odyssean’ education, ‘integrative thinkers’ who can take ‘a crude look at the whole’. He had always struggled to explain why this was the case.

  Despite Cummings’ academic bent, I believed his great flaw was to personalise everything – adopting a scorched-earth policy towards those he clashed with, most famously Iain Duncan Smith, whom he described as incompetent.

  Now Cummings is very much back and at the centre of the Leave campaign.

  Chris clearly thinks the Leave campaign needs a bit of leadership – and he’s the man to sort them out. He’s a decent man, who always wants to be above board, but I suspect he’s told a lot of people what he’s doing, hence the hints in the morning papers, and will find it hard to back down from that. He’s planning to write an Op-Ed piece for the Telegraph expressing his views – something we all agree would mean he had broken collective responsibility. It would be unsustainable for him to stay in his job. That in turn would be reported as the first ‘Referendum Crisis’, and would not augur well.

  One suggestion is that we accept Chris Grayling’s resignation, but make clear that at the end of the renegotiation there would be a suspension of collective responsibility for the rest of the Cabinet. The PM likes the idea, because it could cauterise the situation. But would it work, or just fire the starting gun on chaos? I wonder, ‘What will the average, self-interested Cabinet minister do?’

  I sit down my deputy, Graeme Wilson, and the Prime Minister’s official spokeswoman, Helen Bower, at the old wooden table where I chair most of my office meetings. They’re shocked we could be facing a reshuffle today. Both can’t fathom Grayling’s thinking – but my theory is that it’s beneficial for the less well-known ‘Outers’ to stamp themselves as a leader of the campaign; doing it later will mean they’re just another foot soldier.

  By now Theresa Villiers has arrived to see the PM and is in his office. I wait outside – and she’s out within a couple of minutes. She’s smiley and chatty, as pleasant as ever, looking unusually relaxed. I chew the fat for a bit, before going in to see the PM. He tells me her concern was simple; she was going to have to resign because Government policy would be to stay in the EU after the renegotiation. She’s been reassured by the PM there’s no need to do anything now – he will drop collective responsibility on this issue when the renegotiation is complete.

  The PM is relieved as we walk through to the front of house over the brand new carpets that have been laid during Christmas break. The fear that Grayling and Villiers had been working as a kind of tag team, the first softening the PM up, the second magnifying the problem, is evaporating.

  After a couple of hours in Barking with the Conservative London Mayoral candidate, Zac Goldsmith, doing a lot of supporting media, the PM and I get back in the car to No. 10. A paper bag full of Pret a Manger sandwiches and fruit salad has been left on the back seat – the classic snatched lunch for the PM on a visit.

  He tells me about the Christmas break, including having Michael Gove and his family to stay at Chequers. The question of whether Michael would be ‘In’ or ‘Out’ hung heavy in the air. DC says he had several conversations with Sarah Vine – during each of which she told him she was sure Michael would support him. It was clearly emphatic enough to assure DC that would be the case.

  We begin to talk about the Grayling situation. My view is there’s no fudge here, ‘You can’t be half-pregnant. Either Chris is going to breach collective responsibility or he isn’t.’ If Grayling goes now and says we must leave Europe before the end of the renegotiation, we’re in an impossible bind. If the PM fires him, it looks chaotic. If he doesn’t, he appears weak.

  The aim must be to persuade him to pull back.

  The PM is concerned about everything unravelling, fearful over how the wider Conservative party is reacting to this. His analysis is that everyone, including him, has traded on having a go at ‘Europe’ for years. He describes it as a kind of displacement activity, ‘using it to sooth our fevered brow’. The issue has reached fever pitch now that MPs, Cabinet ministers and even members are going to be confronted by the reality of a decision. It also means the EU’s reputation is in tatters – with no one having done any positive public relations for it, and most openly attacking it, for decades.

  As we glide through traffic, I tell him I have come to the conclusion that if the UK votes to leave the EU it will set off a chain of events:

  He will have to resign.

  The SNP will push for – and likely get – a second independence referendum.

  There’ll be a massive reassessment of Britain’s role in the world, with a struggle to assert ourselves as a front-rank player.

  Back in Downing Street, the Chief Whip, Mark Harper, has gathered with Ed Llewellyn and Kate Fall. All are agreed – there’s not much chance of finessing this issue, unless Chris is prepared to compromise. Allowing him to write an article saying he’s given up on Europe while staying in the Cabinet before the conclusion of the renegotiation just doesn’t work.

  The PM has asked Chris to see him again and he ushers him into his office. Chris emerges a few minutes later, looking even more uncertain. DC’s pitch has been, ‘I try to be a pretty flexible captain – but like every captain I’ve got to have some rules.’ He’s explained that he will suspend collective responsibility, but crucially, not until after the renegotiation.

  Chris is now going for a walk to think about his position.

  It feels to us as though he has walked into the headmaster’s office with a plan that he hasn’t thought through.

  An hour later, word comes back from Chris that he won’t resign, but that he wants the PM to confirm he will be suspending collective responsibility. He also plans to give an interview announcing that he will be campaigning for Leave. Neither of these things is ideal. But I guess it’s better than dealing with a resignation on the first day back.

  I wander back through to my office and tell Ameet of my fear that this is going to be typical of the next few months – a lot of screwing around all day, with little gain at the end of it.

  Chapter 2

  Famous Last Words

  THE NEXT DAY there is a discussion about what the PM will say when he announces all of this in the House of Commons. Essentially, it’s agreed that collective responsibility will be suspended, but only after the renegotiation – and crucially, there will be an official Government position on whether we should stay in the EU or Leave – though Cabinet ministers will be able to campaign on whichever side they want.

  Within minutes of the end of the meeting, the BBC journalist John Pienaar calls me to say he understands the PM will today clarify that collective responsibility will be suspended. It has obviously come from Chris telling everyone. David Cameron rolls his eyes at the news – and we agree to walk into it, looking relaxed and reminding people that The Times had floated the idea over Christmas, so it’s hardly big news.

  Serious issues with the Cabinet aren’t our only problems. There are deep concerns the renegotiation is going off track. For months now, civil servants – and often the PM himself – have been engaged in working out a new settlement for the UK in the European Union. Ideally, we will be able to demonstrate that significant concessions have been made and we have even more of a special status within the EU. Progress is slow and there are plenty of hurdles.

  In the movie The Big Short they get round the issue of how dull concepts like ‘sub-prime mortgages’ are with the slightly dub
ious device of getting the actress and model, Margot Robbie, to explain them while reclining in a bubble bath. No such narrative devices are available to help us get round how mind-bending some of the renegotiation was, with Euro wonks trying to make it palatable.

  The PM worries there isn’t enough progress on curbing welfare for migrants – the idea being that fewer benefits and less money will mean a smaller ‘pull factor’ for migrants, reducing the number coming. He’s determined to deliver more on this.

  The EU wonks have sent a paper saying we should explore Angela Merkel’s idea of redefining what is a worker. Mats Persson, who is the expert on all things EU, says it has the problem of being ‘discriminatory’, a big no-no in Europe, but Germany seems prepared to run with it. Experts gather in the PM’s study and my head aches at the end, just about grasping it.

  We have been asking for a four-year ban on migrants to the EU getting benefits. That seems to be a non-starter. Instead:

  Merkel suggests we could redefine what a ‘worker’ is under EU law to say that they would have to be self-sufficient when moving to another country.

  That means the definition of ‘self-sufficient’ is crucial … too low and it wouldn’t make any difference to migrants arriving.

  Say it was set at £20K, that would mean anyone earning under that would not be considered self-sufficient and would not be allowed to come to the UK.

  If someone could show they could earn more than that figure, they could come.